A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
